Part II of a series of specials on the US Elections, written by the members of the Americas Focus Group
NC's finest: the "black N*zi" and the Hurricane
by Michele Mauri
To any casual observer of American electoral politics, the fact that North Carolina is a swing state might sound strange. NC politics was dominated by the Democratic party for almost a century between 1872 and 1968 when the state flipped to the GOP and voted for Nixon in that year’s presidential election.
Since 1968, the state has then been solidly red, only voting for the Democrats in 1976 and 2008 - in the first case, the Dems had fielded a Georgia native, Jimmy Carter, as their presidential candidate and ended up sweeping the south; in the second, Obama was able to carry the state by a mere 14,000 votes (a 0.3% margin of victory) in what was widely considered a “Blue Wave” year. All of this to say - North Carolina is not usually a toss-up.
However, things change over time - and so has North Carolina. Traditionally mostly rural, NC has undergone substantial and rapid urbanisation over the last decades, coupled with substantial increases in minority populations, and has grown to the point of hosting the single largest research centre in the country - the Research Triangle.
Alongside socioeconomic change came political change. North Carolina, despite looking solidly red and having been so for a long time, has an even split in terms of congressional representation and was the state Trump won with the smallest margin of victory in 2020. In 2024, the state may even be characterised as purple at the presidential level.
Today, North Carolina’s demographics have shifted to the point where the state ranks fifth in the US in terms of the absolute number of registered independents (only behind much more populous states like California, Florida, New York, and Massachusetts). Unlike most states with partisan voter registration, North Carolina also has far more independents than registered Republicans or Democrats, with 37.8% of voters being unaffiliated, 31.3% being Democrats and 29.9% being Republicans.
As far as the presidential election is concerned, polling in the Old North State has been very stable - from August 13 onwards, FiveThirtyEight, a poll aggregator, reports that the distance between Harris and Trump has never been higher than 1%, and mostly below 0.6%. Issues external to the campaign, like Hurricane Helene and GOP gubernatorial hopeful Mark Robinson’s scandals, do not appear to have impacted the race in any substantial way, leaving it wide open still.
Nevertheless, even if substantial shifts in polling have not occurred, the impact of a natural disaster like Helene and of Mark Robinson’s scandals can not, and should not, be overlooked.
Hurricane Helene hit the ground on September 24. A category 4 hurricane, it was the deadliest hurricane to hit the mainland US since Katrina nineteen years ago in 2005. While it did not make landfall in NC, it did hit the Tar Heel State’s western counties after hitting Georgia. While Helene hit the state as a simple tropical storm, having lost much of its momentum as it traversed Florida’s Big Bend region and Georgia, it still did substantial damage.
Of the 241 victims of Hurricane Helene, more than 100 were in North Carolina’s western counties, most of which were due to flooding caused by the rain brought by the storm. Floods and the storm itself damaged the State’s infrastructure, including telecommunications, to the point where the mayor of one of the towns and settlements affected by Helene called response efforts as being “for a 21st century storm, but with 20th century technology”.
Of the more than $88 billion in damages that Helene caused across the southeastern US, almost $54 billion of them were in North Carolina alone, making it the costliest hurricane to ever hit the state.
Understandably, the situation has frustrated campaign efforts across the Tar Heel State, as well as put a strain on election infrastructure - both on the party side and on the state side.
As NPR reports, election precincts in western North Carolina have been turned into aid distribution centres and hotspotts for those who have been evacuated from their counties to others, or from one part of their county to another.
Campaigning has also, effectively, all but stopped, with get-out-the-vote efforts (like canvassing and door-knocking) and personnel being redirected towards aid distribution to those in need, with both Republican and Democratic local candidates all but halting their election efforts. Phone banking, the practice of calling potential voters and trying to convince them via phone conversations, has also stopped. Hurricane Helene has hit western North Carolina’s communications infrastructure very hard, and some counties still do not have access to reliable phone lines, making the practice impossible.
Despite this, the State Government has tried to ease voting rules to make it easier for the people living in areas affected by Hurricane Helene to vote. Local election officials, reports Vox, are now allowed to move polling places and change hours more flexibly and absentee votes can now be cast more easily by handing them in to election officials in counties other than one’s county of residence.
Despite Hurricane Helene, and thanks to the State Government’s efforts to make early voting easier amidst the tragedy, early voting efforts have proceeded relatively unimpeded across the state. Not only has early voting started to take place - the numbers of early votes cast has reportedly smashed records, with close to 33% of North Carolinians having voted early (2.6 million of 7.7 million registered voters) and with more than 350,000 votes cast on the first day of early voting alone.
Many of these early votes come from Republicans, who have been trying to expand the degree to which their base makes use of the possibility of voting early across all swing states - despite being only 29.9% of the registered electorate, polls indicate Republicans make up 34% of early voters.
In a potentially worrying sign for Democrats, black turnout is lagging behind in North Carolina. In Mecklenburg County, early voting in the black community is down 11% compared to 2020: more broadly, despite making up 20% of registered voters, black voters only account for 17.9% of early votes.
Nevertheless, there are sources of optimism for the Harris campaign - chief among them the fact that despite roughly equal amounts of Republicans and Democrats having voted early, Harris is leading in early votes according to a Marist Poll survey of North Carolina voters. According to the firm, the current Vice-President has received 55% of early votes cast, while Trump is stuck at 43%.
The cause may well be twofold.
For starters, the right-wing media apparatus and the national GOP have been trying to blame what they spun as a lacklustre response by FEMA on the Biden administration. They have succeeded to some extent, with only 38% of the US electorate viewing the Biden administration’s response to Helene as positive and 44% perceiving it as negative; on the other hand, most Americans approve of FEMA’s response by 43% to 33%.
In North Carolina, however, the numbers look different, with 49% of voters rating the response to Hurricane Helene as “excellent” (20%) or “good” (29%) and 45% as “fair” (20%) or “poor” (25%). In essence, the (vast) majority of respondents in North Carolina consider the response either adequate, good or excellent (80%). This includes a slim majority of Republicans (59% to 41%), a “stonking” majority of Democrats (92% to 8%) and most independents (72% to 28%).
To some extent, this can explain Harris’ substantial and unexpected lead in early voting despite the lacklustre turnout among the black community.
On top of that, however, one cannot avoid considering the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate’s effect on the Old North State’s election. Mark Robinson’s attempt to become governor has been mired in scandals through the month of September, following a CNN exposé on the candidate’s prior internet history.
Robinson was reported to have been very active on the message boards of porn website nudeafrica.com. Among other things, the CNN exposé found that Robinson referred to himself as a “perv”, once called himself a “black NAZI!”, and once wrote, “I like watching t****y on girl porn!”.
It must be noted that Robinson’s candidacy relied very heavily on “culture war” issues, such as trans women’s access to women’s sports and trans women being able to use the women’s restrooms, to build momentum and support among the Republican base.
Despite being a conservative pro-life candidate, Robinson once wrote he “does not care” if a porn actress or a woman in general has an abortion, he “just wants to see the sex tape”.
Perhaps most controversially, Robinson’s comments include disparaging remarks about Martin Luther King, including calling for the removal of his statue from the National Mall (while calling him a “f*cking commie bastard”), expressing his will to join the KKK and saying he would have called King “Martin Lucifer K**n” if he was in the KKK.
As a result of this scandal, Robinson’s run for the governorship is effectively over. After having run as a pro-life, anti-LGBTQ conservative focused on the empowerment of the black community in the state, and having been called “MLK on steroids” by Donald Trump in what was meant to be a ringing endorsement, the CNN exposé has effectively destroyed his campaign.
He is trailing his opponent, Democrat Josh Stein, by between 15% and 20% depending on the poll, and has lost the support of 20% of Republicans in the state (63% of Republicans supported him in early October compared to 83% in early September, according to a poll by the East Carolina University’s Center for Survey Research).
By and large, what are called “down-ballot races” (i.e., races that are on the same ballot as the presidential one and are influenced by it) do not influence the presidential election, so the Harris campaign shouldn’t put excessive faith in Mark Robinson’s new-found unpopularity dragging down Trump in the general election in North Carolina.
However, Trump’s margin of victory in the Tar Heel State was already low enough in 2020, at only 1.3% or 74.000 votes - so anything with the potential to move even very small percentages of the electorate in one way or the other will count. Most likely because of this, Trump has walked back his endorsement of Robinson saying he is “unfamiliar” with the NC governor race, and the GOP has by and large tried to distance itself from Robinson as much as possible.
In the end, everything will count in North Carolina. Whether Robinson will prevent a Trump win, or whether Helene will prevent a landmark Harris victory, only time will tell.
Arizona: Will the Dem-Streak Continue?
by Morgane Bouguessa
Arizona, traditionally Republican, has evolved into a swing state in U.S presidential elections. From 1952 to 2016, Republicans consistently dominated the state’s presidential elections, with the exception of Bill Clinton’s victory in 1996. Long regarded as a safe “red state”, Arizona has experienced a notable shift in recent years.
In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won Arizona by a smaller-than-expected margin, signaling a weakening Republican dominance in the state. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by a narrow margin of 0.3%, marking a significant political shift. Several factors contributed to Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Arizona during the 2020 election. First, his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has been highly criticized, particularly as it disproportionately affected low-income households, with half of the households earning an annual income of less than $50,000 experiencing job disruptions, and many facing food insecurity. Additionally, his contentious relationships with the late Arizona Senator John McCain, who retains a loyal following of old-line Republican voters, backfired on Donald Trump in the last election and contributed to his defeat in Arizona, a setback that could repeat itself. Arizona also saw a surge in voter turnout, especially among Latino and Native American communities, which traditionally lean Democratic. Latino voter turnout has increased significantly, from 400,000 in 2012 to around 553,500 in 2020, with projections suggesting it could exceed 664,000 in 2024. This growing engagement among Latino and Native American voters played a key role in contributing to Joe Biden’s victory in Arizona and in making the state a swing state. Arizona’s shift to a swing state can also be largely attributed to Maricopa’s socio-economic cleavages between its wealthier urban and suburban populations such as Scottsdale and Paradise Valley, and lower-income rural communities. These distinct regions face different economic challenges that often lead to different political priorities. According to a FiveThirtyEight study, there is a significant correlation between urbanization and voting patterns: areas with a low urbanization index tend to lean Republican, while those with a higher urbanization index generally support Democratic candidates.
Surveys are conducted daily, and polls currently show that Arizona tilts towards Donald Trump, with only one percentage point difference (50-49%, Politico). 270ToWin, a well-known election prediction site, has not made a definitive call on the state, leaving Arizona as a neutral "toss-up" due to its potential to swing in either direction, as poll estimates are very tight. This uncertainty is particularly important because Arizona is a key state, and its final result could have a significant impact on the overall outcome of the presidential election. Historically, “swing states” like Arizona have played a crucial role in the presidential election. Arizona has successfully chosen the winning candidate on 22 occasions, with a success rate of 79%.
The primary issues driving the debate in Arizona are the border crisis, abortion, and the economy. First, regarding the border crisis, a new proposal has been introduced, Proposition 314: Immigration and Border Law Enforcement Measure. If enforced, this measure would make it a state crime for noncitizens to enter the state at any location other than the port of entry. It would also allow state and local police to arrest noncitizens who cross the border unlawfully, permit state judges to order deportations, increase criminal penalties for drug dealers selling fentanyl that leads to the death of another person, and require employers to verify the immigration status of workers. Arizona has a history of controversial immigration legislation, having passed the Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act 15 years ago, which made it mandatory to determine the immigration status of arrested or detained individuals if there was a “reasonable suspicion” that they were in the United States illegally. The only provision that remained applicable until 2016 was the “show your papers” provision. During its implementation, Arizona saw boycotts of conferences and meetings held in the state, resulting in an estimated loss of $141 million due to conference cancellations, over $250 million in lost economic output in the tourism industry, and close to 3,000 jobs lost in just the first year after the act was passed. While the state's undocumented population declined during this time, employment numbers in sectors such as construction or tourism also fell, with few new job opportunities created for legal residents. Therefore, Proposition 314 could have had substantial economic consequences for the local workforce, and also in terms of the costs it would entail. The Grand Canyon Institute, a nonpartisan research organization, estimated the cost of the proposal at $325 million annually.
Secondly, regarding abortion, Proposition 139: the Right to Abortion Initiative proposes amending the state constitution to establish the fundamental right to abortion. Under this initiative, every individual would have the right to access abortion services until fetal viability, typically around 24 weeks. Currently, Arizona law allows abortion up to 15 weeks of pregnancy; although on April 9, 2024, the Arizona Supreme Court upheld a law enacted in 1864 prohibiting abortion under most circumstances. However, on May 1, the Arizona State Senate voted 16-14 to repeal the abortion ban. According to the latest poll from The New York Times and Siena College, 58% of Arizona voters are in favor of the amendment to codify the fundamental right to abortion in the state constitution. Interestingly, some voters who oppose the amendment are not entirely against abortion. In fact, 66% of Arizona voters said they believe abortion should be always or mostly legal. However, many of these voters are against the 24-week threshold, viewing it as too late in the pregnancy.
Furthermore, in the U.S Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego is competing against Republican Kari Lake, with four different polls showing Gallego in the lead. Their areas of focus differ significantly: Gallego, a member of the U.S. House, focuses his arguments on the importance of defending democracy and preserving women’s right to abortion, while Lake, a former newscaster, centers her campaign on securing borders, ensuring safe streets, and preserving the unique Western heritage of Arizona. Regarding the border crisis, Gallego advocates the need to address the root causes of migration, such as poverty and violence in Central America. On the issue of abortion, Gallego has expressed concern over recent state-level restrictions, emphasizing the importance of maintaining access to healthcare services for women. In contrast, Kari Lake opposes abortion and supports more restrictive measures. She positions herself as a “defender of pro-life values”, and advocates for legislation that would further limit abortion access.
Arizona's worsening economic situation renders the voters’ choice harder as none of the candidates’ stances seem appealing. Housing and other living costs have risen, posing significant challenges for residents. While the job market is booming, bolstered by major tech companies like TSMC and Google settling in the state, the gains have not mitigated the housing crisis. In fact, Maricopa County, one of the nation's most populous counties, recorded the highest percentage of job creation this year, according to the Labor Department. However, housing prices in Maricopa have nearly doubled since 2016, exacerbating affordability issues for many Arizonans. In response to these circumstances, the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has promised $25,000 for first-time homebuyers and tax breaks for new parents. Meanwhile, the Republican candidate Donald Trump claims that mass deportations of undocumented immigrants will free up housing and that higher tariffs will create job opportunities. Despite these proposals, voters are expressing frustration that “too little attention has been paid to important issues” such as inflation and housing costs. Many feel that neither candidate is really listening to their concerns, especially those of the middle class struggling to pay for their education and groceries. As a result, Arizonans are increasingly pessimistic about their economic prospects, regardless of who is elected.
In conclusion, Arizona has become a key battleground in presidential and senatorial races, reflecting the state's changing political landscape. Once a Republican stronghold, Arizona has evolved into a swing state, with changing political attitudes reshaping its electoral dynamics. As the 2024 elections approach, polls give Donald Trump a slight lead, but the state remains highly contested and competitive. Ultimately, the results of Arizona's 2024 elections will have far-reaching consequences, not just for the state, but for the United States as a whole. The results of the presidential and senatorial elections will shape Arizona's political, social, and economic future for years to come.
The Silver State Showdown: A GOP Flip?
by Mirco Tognon
Six electoral votes might not seem much, making the Silver State the least consequential of the swing states, but in this competitive presidential election, it could still play a decisive role in deciding the outcome. Indeed, in the past twelve elections, it acted as a bellwether reflecting the national outcome with two exceptions: 1976 and 2016, when the state was won by Clinton.
Among the more prominent issues during this election, the economy claims the podium being selected by almost a quarter of the interviewed in an NWT/Siena poll (August 2024). The concerns must be contextualized with one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, 5.5 percent (6.7 percent in the Las Vegas area) compared to the national average of 4.2 percent, combined with the rising cost of living experienced since the pandemic. Given this context, the public perception appears to favor Trump with 53 percent of likely voters trusting him more than Harris.
Besides, in a State where approximately 23 percent of the population is employed in leisure and hospitality, Trump’s proposal to erase federal taxation on tips found a very receptive audience. In response, Harris later endorsed the plan while standing on her idea of raising the federal minimum wage simultaneously. This led the Culinary Workers Union, one of the largest labor organizations in Nevada, representing approximately 60,000 members in the hospitality sector, to endorse her new policy position. The topic might influence some votes in favor of the candidate who people trust more will implement the cut once elected.
Another decisive issue on the day of the poll will be the lack of affordable housing disrupting many lives in the Las Vegas area. An estimate by the National Low Income Housing Coalition refers to a shortage of 78,000 rental units caused by the absence of market incentives to build affordable houses. The inadequate supply is even clearer when considering the vast expansion of federal property, which accounts for over 80 percent of the state’s territory. In this context, the pressing demand represented by Californians moving has exacerbated the situation. The bargaining power of people relocating within the state or local first-time buyers cannot compete with that of newcomers, who have an average income that is 93 percent higher, according to a report of the Lied Center for Real Estate at the University of Nevada.
On the matter, the candidates have two different approaches at the national level that have provided Harris a margin of 10 points over Trump (49 percent to 39 percent of registered voters) according to a September Bloomberg/Morning Consultant survey. The Vice President’s strategy is to build 3 million new housing units and provide $25,000 to first-time homeowners. Instead, the former president's solution is based on deregulation to reduce possible interferences in the market and the assumption that deporting immigrants will increase the supply of houses. In the meantime, a more structural but not immediate response has been proposed with bipartisan support by Reps. Susie Lee (D-NV) and Dave Joyce (R-OH) to tackle the management of federal land. The Accelerating Appraisals and Conservation Efforts (AACE) Act aims to facilitate the work of appraisal of the Department of Interior and its agencies to accelerate the process of transactions regarding federal land that could be used to achieve housing goals. The bill has already passed in the House and is now in the Senate.
A third still relevant issue, despite not being a border state, remains immigration with significant differences among different racial backgrounds. In fact, it is deemed more noteworthy by white Nevadans (9 percent) in comparison to Latinos (5 percent), who are more concerned about the economy. The latter ethnic group is becoming increasingly relevant in the candidates' campaigns, representing just less than 30 percent of the population. As a result, there has been a rise in support for Trump, given the crucial attention to the economy (44 percent). Moreover, in addition to the deflection of supporters, Democrats will need to face a possible decrease in turnout from these historically favorable communities.
While it does not figure out among the top priorities, the state is one of the most liberal on abortion matters. Currently, the right is protected by state law with a staggering 80 percent of opposition to criminalizing it before 24 weeks, according to a survey from the University of Maryland conducted earlier this summer. Furthermore, on polling day, voters will vote on an initiated constitutional amendment to introduce in the state constitution the right to an abortion until fetal viability and when it is medically indicated to “protect the life or health of the pregnant patient.” Nevertheless, there are mixed signals on whether this Democratic strong point will help them secure the state.
Observing the voters' registration data, one peculiar element stands out. One-third (34.4 percent) is registered as non-partisan. This is partly a heritage of the Automatic Vote Registration Initiative passed in 2018 which established automatic registration when interacting with the Department of Motor Vehicles with an opt-out option. This facilitated the registration process, especially for underrepresented communities and those from rural areas, but led to a spike in this category selected as default. Thus, it creates uncertainty on the number of voters leaning more toward one party or the other.
However, some clues can be extracted from their location. Clark County’s metropolitan area (home of Sin City) holds nearly three-fourths of the population, representing an essential competitive territory for Democrats, who are advantaged in urban regions. For this reason, campaign efforts from both parties are focused here and in Washoe County, where Reno, the second-biggest city, is located, especially with the remaining fifteen rural counties historically Republican strongholds.
This rift can be observed even in the last presidential election. Biden won the state due to its margins in Clark and Washoe, 9 and 5 points respectively, in spite of the losses in the rural, extremely less populated, counties with margins between 25 and 78 in favor of Trump. Similar results were experienced in 2022 when Sen. Cortez Masto defeated her opponent Laxalt in a tight fight where the support from her community was essential. Her results among Latinos temporarily inverted the trend of increasing support for Republicans beating those of previous elections. Part of her success can be attributed to her effective defense of the Democratic economic response to the pandemic crisis, with the aid of unions that have collaborated with her for years. In an interview in August Sen. Daines (R-MT), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), argued that the results would have been different if it had been a presidential election in which the turnover in rural areas would have been higher.
Notwithstanding, his hope of flipping the other seat in this election, in the broader plan to conquer the senate majority with two net wins, seems always less probable with Sam Brown (R) behind Sen. Rosen (D-NV) by 8.5 points in public polling averages. He is perceived as too distant from the state problems with lower-than-expected results among typical Republican areas polling at 52 percent instead of the usual 80 percent, according to a New York Times/Sienna College poll of August. As a result, the NRSC drastically diverted funds toward closer races. A ticket-splitting is historically unlikely with presidential and Senate margins similar on the day of the poll, besides the recent exception in the state with the election of a Republican senator in 2012. In the most recent polls, Harris and Trump are essentially tied, with a slight advantage for the former. This situation stands in stark contrast to the persistent expectation that Democrats would lose the state before the nominee’s change.
Georgia: A Toss-Up Rematch of 2020
by Andrea Thomas Ciccaglione
Georgia has been a solid Republican stronghold for the last 30 years, but in 2020 it was won by Joe Biden, the first democratic candidate to do so since 1992. This trend continued in 2022 when Democrats managed to elect both of their candidates, Reverend Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, in the Senate run-off race, breaking the Republican-held national majority. However, despite these recent results, the state’s leanings are far from certain - hence its status as a battleground state.
In 2020, Biden only won Georgia by 11,779 votes out of the 5 million cast, and in 2022, while the state gubernatorial race was firmly won by GOP incumbent Brian Kemp, who increased his vote share from his 2018 result. It is therefore difficult to say whether Georgia’s recent electoral results are a consequence of the Democratic Party’s success or the Republican Party’s failure.
As of October 24th, 2,169,165 mail-in and early in-person votes have been cast in Georgia, with the state breaking and tripling its first-day record (around 300,000). Donald Trump is polling +1% ahead of Kamala Harris.
Aside from the Presidential Election, Georgia’s 14 congressional seats are also on the ballot, while its senate seats and other statewide offices (that of Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General) will not be.
Demographically speaking, Georgia is one of the United States majority-minority states, having its population composed of 50% non-hispanic whites, 33% blacks, 11% Hispanics, and 5% Asians. This is important to note, as minority groups will play a vital role in the electoral results. In 2020, Biden was able to win the state thanks to his support among black and Hispanic voters. Although Democrats had been losing support from this key demographic under the Biden presidency, his withdrawal and Harris becoming the nominee for the 2024 election has helped recover lost ground. Nevertheless, Trump continues to make gains on Black and Latino voters, reaching record levels of support for the Republican Party. Women remain the most important voting bloc in Georgia, where Democrats retain a majority of support, despite Trump making steady gains since 2016.
According to state polling, Georgian voters' top issue is the economy, with a particular focus on inflation, followed by preserving democracy, and to a lesser degree, immigration and crime.
Over the last few months both the Harris and Trump campaign have prioritised Georgia, hosting multiple events to mobilise support and announce their policy platform.
Harris, along with her vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, other notable democrats politicians and endorsing celebrities, have all visited the state for various campaign events respectively held on July 30th, September 17th, October 7th, and October 24th.
On the 24th, Harris hosted her largest rally to date with 20,000 attendees, being joined on stage by Obama (their first rally together), Bruce Springsteen, and Spike Lee showcasing the high energy and enthusiasm of Democrats in the state.
At these rallies, Harris has attempted to address Georgian concerns through her policy proposals and past professional experience. Regarding the economy, Harris has touted her continuity with the Biden administration in reducing costs for working people and building up the middle class. She continued to advocate for a $25,000 incentive for first-time home buyers, a $6,000 tax credit for families with a newborn, and cut taxes on tips. On Inflation, Harris has blamed “corporate greed”, promising to ban price gouging in supermarkets, attack hidden fees, raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, and cap prescription drugs. Specific to Georgia, Harris has tried to highlight her previous administration’s success in delivering the biggest spending and investment measure in the state. Through the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Bill, the Biden presidency has made investments in clean energy, reduced costs and pollution, grown domestic manufacturing in electric battery and vehicle plants, and added an estimated 40,000 jobs.
On crime and immigration, Harris has leveraged her past experience as district and state attorney general of California, as well as time as vice president, where she dealt with the two issues. Specifically, Harris has championed the 2023-24 bipartisan Immigration bill as her own, promising to sign it into law as president, and reminding that it was vetoed by Trump and Republicans for political gain.
Lastly, with regard to protecting democracy and civil liberties, Harris has emphasised the Republicans’ role in overturning Roe vs Wade and restricting women’s reproductive freedom, something she has vowed to restore as president. Furthermore, she has stressed Trump’s role on January 6th and his illiberal rhetoric, such as his remarks about being a “dictator on day one” of his second presidency. Georgia uniquely witnessed Trump’s fraudulent attempts to overturn the 2020 elections when he tried to pressure State Secretary of Georgia Brad Raffensperger to “find 11,780 votes”, and employed current Georgia Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones as a fake state elector. Additionally, under the approval and support of Trump, the Republican-controlled election board has attempted to push for new state election certification laws for the 2024 vote, such as a hand count rule, arguing to make the election more secure and accurate. Judges struck down the new ruling citing that they “needlessly interfered in the voting process” and were “in conflict with the Election Code”. Democrats have cheered the ruling stating that the changes were an attempt to delay and deny electoral certification, as well as sow public doubt and administrative chaos in the results.
On the other side of the aisle, Trump and his vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance have also visited Georgia, holding campaign rallies on August 3rd, September 30th, and the 15th of October. Like Harris, Trump has made his case to Georgians, attacking the previous administration's record and proposing his alternative policy stances.
With regards to the economy, Trump has attacked Biden and Harris, especially blaming the previous administration for inflation. He has advocated for lowering taxes, eliminating taxes on tips, decreasing corporate taxes to 15%, and introducing 20% tariffs on imported goods to stimulate local domestic production. On crime, Trump has vowed to crack down hard, increasing funding for police, hiring more federal prosecutors, and deploying the National Guard in high-crime areas. Trump has also blamed crime on immigration, promising to return to his administration's harsh border policy and deporting millions of immigrants. Specific to Georgia, on the topic of crime and immigration, Trump has stressed the killing of Laken Riley, a local nursing student murdered by a Venezuelan man who entered the country illegally, blaming the death on Biden and Harris for their handling of immigration. On democracy, Trump has attacked Harris and Biden for the attempt on his life, blaming democrats for escalating political tension and the media apparatus for supporting their agenda with fake news. Additionally, Trump has repeated his 2020 election denial, stating that the election was stolen from him and that Democrats are the biggest threats to American democracy. In Georgia, Trump has also launched these attacks against local GOP officials, including Governor Brian Kemp, blaming them for not helping him overturn the 2020 election results. Although successful at mobilising his base, these attacks may prove detrimental to Trump’s campaign effort to secure the state.
As previously mentioned the 2020 presidential election and 2022 senate runoff election was won by democrats in the traditionally Republican stronghold of Georgia, while the governorship was won by Kemp and the Republicans. According to local GOP officials, this was caused by Georgia independents and moderate Republicans being put off by Trump’s extreme rhetoric, while Kemp and Warnock managed to simultaneously maintain their core voters and attract those in the middle to their electoral coalition. This is reflected in Georgia polling where a majority of Georgians, democrats, independents, and republicans, acknowledge that Trump has engaged in illegal and unethical behaviour.
Lastly, Hurricane Helene is a recent issue that is bound to influence the electoral outcome of Georgia, as well as exacerbate the divide between national and local GOP members. Despite Florida and North Carolina being the hardest impacted states, Georgia was also hit by Hurricane Helene, suffering a death toll of 33 inhabitants. The state saw strong winds and force wind gusts, leading to debris and tree damage, as well as 367,000+ users without electricity. The Biden administration has responded by establishing 4 instate disaster centres, providing 119 million $ in federal aid for both individuals and state governments, as well as 200 million $ in indemnities for local business sectors. Nevertheless, Trump has attempted to galvanise the issue against the Biden administration and Harris campaign, criticising federal response. Trump and his campaign allies have also attempted to spread misinformation, chiefly that federal authorities were neglecting Republican voting neighbourhoods and that all FEMA funding had been used up supporting immigrants (despite the two being part of different Homeland Security departments and having separate funding). Governor Kemp himself has come out and denied this accusation, instead stating that Biden and Harris have both reached out to him and directly made available any federal aid he should need.
Comments