Trudeau, Tensions and Tariffs
- Giulia Ristagno
- 12 minutes ago
- 18 min read
The Beginning of a New Political Era for Canada?
Former Prime Minister Trudeau’s resignation had long been expected, given his personal unpopularity, which prompted a concerning decline in the polls for the Liberals and his subsequent loss of support within the party. Unforeseen, however, were the circumstances of his departure. Canada, whose government was the longest-serving in the G7, suddenly found itself amid a political crisis with potentially severe economic consequences. Tariffs and trade controversies, combined with President Trump’s threats of annexation, endanger the country’s period of relative stability. Newly appointed Prime Minister Carney believes he can make up for his predecessor’s wrongs and steer Canada in the right direction. With upcoming elections and Conservatives initially benefiting from a drop in Liberal support, one substantial question remains unanswered: is the change of administration the beginning of a new era for the country?
Almost a Decade of Policies and Politics
“This country deserves a real choice in the next election [...]. If I’m having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election,” stated the former Liberal Party leader as he announced his resignation on January 6th, 2025. Nine years into his mandate, Trudeau’s authority no longer appeared stable, with his government barely surviving an exorbitant amount of no-confidence votes.
Son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, who dominated the Canadian political scene in the ‘70s and ‘80s, Justin Trudeau debuted in the political world as a Member of Parliament in 2008. In 2013, he became the leader of the Liberal Party, arguably the most dominant political force at the federal level at the time. Two years later, he entered the international scene as the country’s Prime Minister.
Trudeau offered hope for change in the post-Harper era, presenting himself as a progressive feminist, environmentalist and advocate for First Nations’ rights. Among the key changes implemented by his administration’s early tenure were the introduction of the country’s first gender-balanced cabinet and drastic measures to combat global warming. In 2016, he introduced a national carbon tax program, both one of his self-proclaimed greatest accomplishments and a cause of great tension, with the policy being heavily criticised by the opposing parties for allegedly imposing a burden on middle-class working families. The social-democratic New Democratic Party (NDP), which initially supported such a measure, recently sought to distance itself from it as elections were fast approaching. Amongst his most debated policies were implementing a tax-free child benefit for families and legalising recreational cannabis.
Strict vaccination legislation put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic caused a strong backlash, which led to the Freedom Convoy protests in early 2022. The government responded with unprecedented harshness, making use of the 1998 Emergency Act to remove protesters. Such a use of force was deemed to be highly controversial, given the severity and lack of precedent for the implemented measures. The consequences of the pandemic, in Canada like in other countries, included a sharp increase in the price of food and housing. With growing pressure from the opposition to address the stagnant real estate market and the increasing immigration rates that were partially blamed for the former, the government opted to downscale immigration targets and funding for public services. Combined with scandals and resurfaced images of the Prime Minister wearing brownface makeup before his debut into politics, Trudeau’s popularity reached an all-time low. In 2024, according to the Angus Reid Institute’s research, only 22% of Canadians thought Trudeau was “doing a good job”.
Relationship with Canada’s First Nations
Early into his mandate, the Prime Minister developed an ambiguous reputation, inside and outside his country. His initiatives towards inclusion and reconciliation came along with scandals and breaches of the law, starting with a violation of conflict of interest rules to afford a costly vacation. Still, Mr. Trudeau was a very outspoken advocate of the rights of, and acceptance for, minority groups in Canada. As US President Donald Trump restricted refugee programs and imposed a temporary travel ban from prevalent Muslim countries in 2017, the Prime Minister responded by declaring, “To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength.”
As First Nations National Chief Cindy Woodhouse Nepinak acknowledged after his resignation, Mr Trudeau “has taken meaningful steps to address issues that matter to First Nations.” Over the years, he has sought to engage the leaders of Indigenous groups in revising existing laws to strengthen the protection of the rights of First Nation members. “We need to get to a place where Indigenous peoples in Canada are in control of their destiny, making their own decisions about their future,” he said.
Such orientation signalled a significant distance from his father’s values, as Pierre Trudeau had proposed a policy in 1969 to abolish the recognition of Indigenous People’s special legal status, seen by many First Nations as an attempt to assimilate them into mainstream Canadian society and deal with historical grievances, such as Aboriginal title to land. The relationship between Pierre Trudeau’s administration and First Nations was further strained when the Prime Minister initially opposed including Indigenous rights in the country’s 1982 Constitution. His son, instead, declared his intention to “renew and respect that relationship” with First Nations, Métis, and Inuit peoples. In 2016, he committed approximately $4.6 billion over five years to strengthen access to water infrastructures for First Nations, which was one of his main campaign promises towards Indigenous communities.
A year later, he disbanded the Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada to create two different departments, these being Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada (CIRNAC) and Indigenous Services Canada (ISC). The change was aimed at promoting Indigenous people’s self-determination by supporting First Nations and Inuit organisations’ shift towards self-government, but Indigenous leaders remained sceptical of the bureaucratic restructuring. Tensions peaked in 2018 as the government’s proposal of a new legal framework for the recognition of Indigenous rights, supported by Minister of Justice Wilson-Raybould, raised controversies among chiefs.
Trudeau’s image proved to be once again ambiguous in the public eye. His administration recognised the National Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls’ definition of “Canadian Genocide” and introduced strong measures to support indigenous languages; yet, Trudeau was found vacationing in Tofino, British Columbia, rather than attending official ceremonies for the first National Day for Truth and Reconciliation.
In the last years of his administration, his government allotted a significant portion of its budget to initiatives concerning Indigenous Peoples, as funding almost tripled from 2015 to 2025, growing from $11 billion to over $32 billion. Respectively in 2023 and 2024, $23 billion was provided for settlement agreements to compensate those harmed by discriminatory funding of the First Nations Child and Family Services program, and $45 million was awarded to Nunavik Inuit for sledge dog killings. Furthermore, 2024 saw the government sign the Nunavut Lands and Resources Devolution Agreement after a decade of negotiations, allowing First Nation communities in Nunavut to administer their public land and collect revenues from their natural resources. The government of Nunavut, 25 years after its recognition as a territory, is about to have control over its water, mineral resources and administration.
While Canada’s relationship with First Nations remains delicate, Trudeau’s administration allowed for significant communication and cooperation between Indigenous self-governments, fostering mutual respect. Nevertheless, First Nations still face serious disadvantages due to systemic racism and inadequate representation. “It is not enough for institutions like governments, police forces, hospitals, courts, and the criminal justice system to use cultural awareness training as a cure-all for systemic institutional racism. These institutions must undertake an honest review of their laws, regulations, policies, and practices to uncover the built-in systemic biases against First Nations people and commit to making real substantive changes,” stated the Assembly of First Nations in its Calls for Justice 2024 report. Many initiatives that were supposedly aimed at addressing Truth and Reconciliation Calls to Action have been diverted to general Calls for Justice, rather than being focused on Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women, Girls and 2SLGBTQQIA+ Peoples (“2S” stands for Two Spirit, describing people with diverse gender identities, expressions, roles and sexual orientations historically present in Indigenous communities).
The Pandemic and… Trucks
Despite having the second-lowest mortality rate worldwide due to COVID-19, Canada’s healthcare system virtually collapsed after the Pandemic hit, damaging citizens’ long-term health, with a 13% drop in surgeries in 2023 compared to 2019, 10% of Canadians missing a regular healthcare provider, staff shortages and burnout. Shortly after the beginning of the crisis, however, hatred was diverted towards healthcare workers, who faced daily threats and harassment. As Nova Scotia’s Chief Medical Officer of Health announced mandatory masking policies for indoor spaces, people awaited the end of his speech for a physical confrontation. Prince Edward Island’s Chief Public Health Officer was concerned for the security of her family and staff, while Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer was targeted by abusive messages.
Faith in institutions quickly plummeted, leading to one of the most threatening protests towards public institutions and citizens’ health in the country’s history. In 2022, truckers from all provinces drove to Ottawa’s Parliament buildings, claiming the government’s regulations violated their personal freedom and human rights. Holding Canadian flags, some marked with swastikas, citizens compared mandatory vaccination measures to fascism and defaced national hero Terry Fox’s statue to display their opposition to the mandates. Despite being a minority, the protesters’ disruptiveness allowed them and their claims (including opposition to vaccine policies, demands to abolish all COVID-19 restrictions, and the ineffectiveness of vaccines) to gain arguably oversized media attention.
Trudeau invoked the 1988 Emergency Act for the first time in history, which allowed the federal government to remove “illegal and dangerous” blockades across the country while claiming that institutions were “not preventing the right of people to protest legally.”
The Canadian House of Commons Committee on Public Safety required the GoFundMe platform, on which the protesters had gathered their funds, testify before it to “ensure the funds are not being used to promote extremism, white supremacy, anti-Semitism and other forms of hate, which have been expressed among prominent organizers for the truck convoy currently in Ottawa.” Shortly thereafter, the company removed the Convoy support page, stating that there was “evidence from law enforcement that the previously peaceful demonstration has become an occupation, with police reports of violence and other unlawful activity.” Deputy Prime Minister Freeland further explained the financial measures being taken under the Emergency Act, as she explained that protesters’ financial activity could be frozen without a court order. “We are … broadening the scope of Canada’s anti‐money laundering and terrorist financing rules so that they cover crowdfunding platforms and the payments service providers they use. These changes cover all forms of transactions – including digital assets such as cryptocurrencies,” she stated.
As Ontario and the city of Ottawa declared a state of emergency, authorities seized trucks bearing firearms and impeded US citizens from crossing the border to join the protests. In 2024, a judge rebuked Trudeau for using such measures, as he “was not justified concerning the relevant factual and legal constraints that were required to be taken into consideration”. While Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland decided to appeal the decision, Conservative leader Poilievre backed the court’s stance, as Poilievre himself had met with protesters during the convoy. “Judge rules Trudeau broke the highest law in the land with the Emergencies Act. He caused the crisis by dividing people. Then he violated Charter rights to illegally suppress citizens,” he tweeted, marking his opposing stance in foresight of his electoral campaign.
Green (Un)Sustainable Future?
Other than being world-renowned for its beautiful sceneries and uncontaminated nature, Canada heavily depends on its natural resources for economic growth. In 2022, these made up 19.2% of the nominal GDP and accounted for 1.7 million jobs. Governments derived $14.8 billion from the natural resource sector from 2016 to 2020 and have planned to invest upwards of $572 billion in resource projects spanning from 2023 to 2033. Furthermore, the country’s natural resource exports comprised 58% of its total merchandise exports in 2022, compared to the UK’s and China’s 3%. In 2021, 648 communities were economically reliant on at least one natural resource sector. Rising ecological risks thus have stronger economic implications in Canada than elsewhere, and both provincial and federal governments have sought to address these vulnerabilities by implementing innovative measures.
In 1998, British Columbia was facing its greatest environmental calamity, as the region’s pine forests were infected and dying. Because the region heavily relies on its natural resources for key sectors such as agriculture, forestry, mining, oil and gas, and construction, such a loss caused serious social and economic challenges. Ten years later, following a series of dramatic storms, the government decided to take more serious measures to combat climate change, imposing a new carbon tax which priced fuel emissions at a provincial level.
The introduction and collapse of a carbon tax is no news. In 2005, the European Union set an example by charging €20/$22 per emission of a ton of carbon and was then forced to re-dimension to a €3/$3.4 fee due to heavy lobbying and oversupply of permits. Ten US states introduced a “cap and trade” system in 2009, which failed to become a nationwide policy and currently has no bright future, with President Trump openly denying climate change. British Columbia, however, decided to introduce a new concept of the tax itself by returning all the money raised through the system as tax cuts. The World Bank defined it as a “textbook” example for environmental policy due to its groundbreaking revenue-neutral system.
The tax caused everyday goods and utilities, such as gas, electricity and heating, to experience a significant price rise. The same extra amount spent by citizens, however, was returned in the form of rebates. Therefore, anyone willing to change their consumption behaviours would be making a profit out of the tax, as they would experience cuts without actually indulging in buying products with a high carbon footprint. Unlike similar policies from abroad, British Columbia’s government kept none of the almost $1.8 billion raised in the first three years. Lower-income residents and citizens living in rural areas were also given extra benefits and have been proven to receive more from rebates than they pay in additional costs.
Former Prime Minister Campbell supported the policy, as “the tax was leading edge at the time. And, unfortunately, 11 years later, it’s still leading edge”. Despite the general agreement on the law’s effectiveness, other provinces were reluctant to follow suit. Ontario’s conservative premier, Doug Ford, repealed the province’s carbon tax, defining it “the worst tax ever”. When Trudeau tried to introduce such a law at a federal level in 2019, most provinces opposed it. As part of the Liberals’ 2030 Emission Reduction Plan, part of the country’s first national climate plan (2022), Canada should aim to cut emissions 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and steadily raise the carbon price, which was supposed to increase from C$65 ($42) to C$80 ($56)this April. With upcoming federal elections, the Conservative Party has heavily criticised such measures, campaigning under the slogan “axe the tax”. “Justin Trudeau has created the worst economic conditions since the great depression, and Canadians have lost faith in his government,” stated the party, arguing that Canadians are paying tax costs because of higher prices for rent, groceries and transportation.
Environmental plans of action are among the critical themes for the upcoming elections. Trudeau’s government barely survived Conservative leader Poilievre’s motion of no confidence in 2024 (204-116 votes to defeat the motion), which was based on the carbon tax. The New Democratic Party (NDP), which has backed the government on such occasions, seems to have adopted a new strategy now, as its leader, Singh, claimed he doesn't want a policy that puts the “burden on the backs of working people”.
The Canadian Climate Institute found that the national carbon levy will reduce emissions by 50% by 2030. If the Conservative Party were to win the elections, however, according to ex-Minister of Environment and Climate Change Guilbeault, Canada would have “no way” of meeting its 2030 emission targets. The future of the Canadian economy, environment and policy strategy remains uncertain.
The Inevitable Downfall
Mr. Trudeau’s popularity was questionable from the very beginning, as inquiries on his undeclared luxurious vacations and absences on important occasions began almost simultaneously with his mandate. His declared commitment to social issues and progressive approach to inclusiveness appeared in strong contrast with the “blackface scandal” and the devolution of hundreds of millions of dollars to WE, an international charity and educational partner linked to his family.
The ripple effect that brought his demise originated in 2019 when Justice Minister and Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould resigned after accusing Trudeau’s staff of pressuring her into making a legal deal with one of the country’s largest companies. The Prime Minister was later indeed found guilty of breaching the Conflict of Interest Act. In support of Wilson-Raybould, former Minister of Health, Minister of Indigenous Services, and President of the Treasury Board, Jane Philpott, shared Wilson-Raybould’s belief that Trudeau “was not the leader I had thought him to be”.
The Prime Minister continued not to live up to the very high political standards he had promised to maintain, as a series of minor scandals accompanied his tenure. When Deputy Prime Minister Freeland resigned in late 2024, his reputation took the final hit. Freeland accused him of wasting taxpayer money on “political gimmicks” and not doing enough to address the “grave challenges” posed by Trump’s tariffs. Support for the Liberal Party reached rock bottom when the US President’s threats to the existence of Canada as a nation grew, and the ongoing trade war strongly damaged the economy. By January 2025, only 22% of Canadians expressed support for the Prime Minister.
Mr. Carney’s Changes and Promises
After Trudeau’s two months of interim tenure as Prime Minister, Canada's Liberal Party elected Mark Carney as its new leader and candidate for the federal elections, originally scheduled for October 2025. Carney was sworn in on March 14, 2025, as the country's 24th Prime Minister, despite never having held an elected office before.
Even though he was relatively unknown to the public at large, Carney is well established in the field of economics. As governor of the Bank of Canada in 2008, he took immediate action against the global financial crisis, reducing interest rates by 0.50% months before fellow countries followed suit. Maintaining low interest rates until 2010 allowed for a rapid return to pre-recession levels of output and employment, incurring lower losses than any other G7 country.
In 2012, he adopted a similar strategy as the first non-British governor of the Bank of England, helping the country emerge from the recession by keeping low interest rates until employment rates increased. He later became special envoy on climate action and finance for the UN and served as Trudeau's informal advisor during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Surely, his career and expertise are a strong asset for the country’s current delicate geopolitical and financial balance. In his first order as Prime Minister, he ended the consumer carbon pricing programme, the environmental tax, which had been highly criticised by the Conservative Party.
Unlike his predecessor, Carney also seems to be open to a dialogue with US President Trump. “Part of my experience overlaps with that of the President - we're both looking out for our countries. But he knows, and I know from long experience, that we can find mutual solutions that win for both,” he declared. Such an openness to negotiation seems to be important for Canadian electors, as, according to an Ipsos poll, citizens believe the Prime Minister is “the best leader to negotiate unite Canadians to make the country less dependent on the US, and has the skills needed to help Canadians deal with economic hardship owing to Trump’s tariffs.” Carney, in fact, still aims to maintain strong policies regarding the country’s independence and economic future. He was very dismissive, in fact, of Trump's “crazy” desire to annex Canada as the US' 51st state, as he stated that “We find you very attractive, but we’re not moving in with you.” Still, he acknowledged great respect towards the neighbouring country and its current leader.
The Liberal leader’s fiscal policies will surely be under scrutiny, as 46% of Canadians demand that the government lower income taxes and address affordability issues caused by the rising costs generated by tariffs. Carney has tackled such concerns by promising greater prosperity for the country, pledging to make Canada an “energy superpower”. Building off former Conservative Prime Minister Harper’s rhetoric, he aims to create new federal offices focused on fast-tracking approvals to develop natural resources, favour the industrial economy and foreign trade opportunities. Conservative leader Poilievre also vowed to institute a Rapid Resource Project Office, which will beat the Liberals’ proposal of evaluating federally designed projects within five years by doing the same within six months to a year.
Nevertheless, considering Canada’s extensive reliance on natural resources, the long-term climate impact of policies will also be crucial. Subsequently, acknowledging the need for a “low carbon” future, the Prime Minister has promised to phase out fossil fuel use in federal government buildings by 2030 and improve the Output-Based Pricing System to better reward high emitters for reducing their emissions. According to Environment and Climate Change Canada and in line with the Liberals’ Emission Reduction Plan, however, the country must reduce emissions by 40-45% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels to meet the set international standards. Among his proposed policies are financial incentives for environmentally friendly initiatives, such as energy-efficient appliances or electric cars, to substitute for the carbon tax. Similarly to what he had envisioned for the energy sector, Carney also proposed to reform the federal bureaucracy to approve clean energy projects.
Upcoming Elections: Crossroads and Uncertainties
As expected, Carney called for early federal elections and the dissolution of Parliament. Citizens will be called to vote on April 28, as the country is “facing the most significant crisis of our lifetime because of President Donald Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty,” he said. The Prime Minister sees Trump’s foreign policy as an attempt to “break the country, to allow him to own it.” Before the dissolution of Parliament, the incumbent Liberals ruled as a minority government and held 152 seats in the House of Commons, while the Conservatives had 120, the Bloc Québécois 33, the NDP 24, and the Green party 2.
Unlike what was predicted early into the electoral campaign, the Liberal Party no longer faces a severe threat of losing to the Conservative Party. Several surveys report that Canadians believe Carney is more capable of handling economic turbulence, trade talks and relations with the White House than Conservative leader Poilievre. The 2023 CBC polls reported the Conservative Party’s electoral victory at a 99% chance, an edge which was maintained until February 2025. As of April 2025, trends have reversed, with Carney leading with 47.3% of preferences in polls, 5.8% ahead of Poilievre. The gap between Liberals and Conservatives keeps widening, with Liberals gaining increasing support from the NDP and Bloc Québécois and now being projected to win with a 90% likelihood.
As Canada’s identity and security are shaken to the core because of US relations, Poilievre tried directing his campaign towards putting “Canada First”. According to Turnbull, director of Dalhousie University’s School of Public Administration, “Conservatives seem to be falling short in saying the things that connect with how Canadians are feeling. [...] Conservatives are keeping the same messaging, even though Canadians have shifted.”
Surely, national pride and a feeling of Canadian exceptionalism are playing a key role in the electoral campaign. The Conservatives attacked Carney for not being a true Canadian, as the Prime Minister also possessed British and Irish citizenship. What’s key here is that dual nationality had already been a reason for political debate in Canadian political history, as former Conservative leader Scheer omitted being a US national while running for the 2019 federal elections, and former Liberal leader Dion was heavily criticised for holding French citizenship. Both lost their respective bids for the Premiership.
The future of Canada’s policies remains uncertain. With Trudeau’s era of “sunny ways” having come to an end, the country must face a political turnover after almost a decade. Strong economic and foreign policy programs are crucial for the country’s integrity and prosperity, thus calling for a resolute and expert leader. As Liberals and Conservatives make their final run towards the role of Prime Minister, the country remains hanging on a thread, unsure if there will even be an independent Canada within another nine years.
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