What will a second Trump term mean for Eastern European Security?
The Salient Points of European Defense
by Pavel Marinov
Ukraine and Russia
At the core of Donald Trump’s campaign is his pledge to end the Russo-Ukrainian conflict “within 24 hours” of assuming office. While he has offered few details on how he intends to achieve this, there is speculation that he may leverage U.S. aid to Ukraine to bring both sides to the negotiating table. This approach would involve pressuring Ukraine with the prospect of a complete cut-off in aid if they do not agree to peace talks, while simultaneously cautioning Russia that U.S. support for Ukraine would increase should they refuse to participate in peace negotiations.
Serbia and Kosovo
The Biden administration has aimed to balance power dynamics in the Western Balkans, maintaining a neutral stance on regional conflicts. Under the Trump administration, however, there can potentially be a shift in U.S. foreign policy toward a more Serbia-friendly approach, heightened by the possible involvement of Richard Grenell, who served as Trump's Special Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo peace negotiations. During his tenure, Grenell facilitated the 2020 economic normalization agreements between Serbia and Kosovo, viewed by some critics as favouring Serbian interests. His close ties with Serbian leadership and advocacy for economic projects in the region have led to apprehensions that his influence could steer U.S. policy to be more aligned with Serbia's positions. Furthermore, one of the most prominent supporters of Trump in Europe is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a proponent of nationalism in the Balkans who has cultivated close ties with a fellow pro-nationalist Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik. A more pro-Serbian stance of the Trump administration, combined with his commitment towards disentanglement and a more isolationist foreign policy, can disrupt the stability in the region.
Economy
A key element of Trump’s economic plans is to introduce a flat 10% tariff on all imports to the United States, but the effect on Eastern European countries will not be particularly severe, since the amount they export to the USA is relatively small, both in nominal terms and as a percentage of GDP. However, the tariff plan's impact on the global economy cannot be underestimated given that it could lead to a trade war between the EU and the USA, which in turn can force Eastern European Countries to distance themselves from the USA and align more closely with China and Russia.
NATO
The future of NATO may be in jeopardy, as Trump has repeatedly asserted that the protection of NATO is not guaranteed for nations that do not meet the voluntary NATO defence-spending target of 2% of GDP. During Trump’s first term in office, he questioned the involvement of the USA in the alliance and accused other countries of free-riding on US military spending. Throughout his campaign, he only reiterated his commitment to a more isolationist foreign policy and a disentanglement of international conflicts. This has left many EU leaders and experts concerned for the alliance's future. In 1961 Charles de Gaulle asked President Kennedy if the USA would be willing to trade New York for Paris, and this exact question now looms over Eastern Europe: would President Trump be willing to risk nuclear war with Russia over an invasion of, say, Estonia, and trade New York for Tallinn, Riga, Warsaw or Sofia?
In 5 Words - Confusion, Peace, Boldness, Decoupling, & Potential
by Kaspar Sõukand
Confusion
If there is a word to summarize the Trump administration’s relations with Eastern European security, it would be confusion. Statements from Trump’s inner circle range from cutting off support to Ukraine, to even a higher degree, making it extremely hard to decipher his actual plans.
Peace
Trump has been running his campaign on a promise of peace “within a day”, potentially signaling Trump’s willingness to compromise with Russia over territorial concessions. Ukraine has declared itself unwilling to give up any of its territory, pinning Eastern Europe in a security dilemma.
Boldness
While Biden has positioned himself as the main supporter of Ukraine, the US’s support has been insufficient and overly cautious at best. Many in Eastern Europe believe that Trump’s bold personality could, in the right circumstances, accelerate the US’s military aid, turning around the current stalemate.
Decoupling
Ever since 2016, Trump has promoted a more isolationist foreign policy doctrine, with the results of the recent election indicating that it has widespread support from the American people. It is highly likely that Trump will focus on decreasing the US’s role in defending Europe’s Eastern flank, shifting the focus toward Iran and China.
Potential
Trump’s distancing from Europe might serve as the wake-up call that the European Union desperately needs. Trump has shown great willingness to demand more contribution and self-sufficiency from NATO’s Western European allies, with the view aligning with those of the Eastern flank countries, who have long yearned for higher military spending in the EU and NATO.
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